The Lancet Healthy Longevity

Introduction Care home (CH) influenza vaccination of staff improves resident health, yet uptake remains low at just over 11% (England, 2025/2026). We report an economic evaluation (EE) of "FluCare", an intervention to increase staff influenza vaccination through: vaccination clinics at CHs; promotional materials; and CH financial incentives. Method Seventy-five CHs were randomised to FluCare or control. A cost-consequence analysis took the influenza vaccination programme funder perspective, but also extended to the National Health Service (NHS) and CH perspective. Costs included: influenza vaccination; administration fee; FluCare components; CH resident NHS utilisation. Outcomes were: staff influenza vaccination rates; staff sickness; and resident mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluded intervention CHs that did not host vaccination clinics. Results Compared to control CHs, adjusted analysis found intervention homes with a mean absolute increase in vaccination rates of 1.8% (95% CI: -6.0%, 10.8%; p=0.572) at an increased cost of {pound}451 (95% CI: {pound}239, {pound}675; p<0.001) to the vaccination programme funders: {pound}249 per additional percentage point (PAPP) per CH. Vaccination clinics were delivered late in the influenza season, with 80% taking place from February 2023. Including only intervention CHs that hosted staff flu vaccination clinics (23/35), increases the mean difference to 10.1% (95% CI: 0.9%, 21.9%; p=0.018) and costs to {pound}805 (95% CI: {pound}603, {pound}1,079; p<0.001): {pound}79 PAPP per CH. Differences between trial arms in other costs and outcomes were marginal and generally non-significant. Conclusions FluCare delivered little improvement when staff flu vaccination clinics did not occur and had little impact on other costs/outcomes. Cost-effectiveness depends on willingness-to-pay for increased staff vaccination, but cost PAPP per CH improved from {pound}249 to {pound}79 when only CHs hosting clinics were considered. Late implementation, likely reduced impact by limiting clinic delivery, as reflected in sensitivity analysis. Future evaluations should implement FluCare earlier in the season.

Background Lifestyle interventions can increase the probability of remission of prediabetes to normal glucose tolerance, but their economic value remains unclear. We assessed the within-trial and lifetime-horizon modeled cost-effectiveness of intensive and conventional lifestyle interventions in risk-stratified participants with prediabetes. Methods A health economic evaluation was conducted alongside the 12-month multicenter PLIS trial (n=1,105). High-risk participants were randomized to intensive (HR-INT) or conventional (HR-CONV); low-risk participants to conventional lifestyle intervention (LR-CONV) or control (only short single consultation; LR-CTRL) with risk stratification based on insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and liver fat content. Within-trial analyses estimated incremental costs per additional remission to normoglycemia and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Lifetime cost-effectiveness was modelled using a four-state Markov Model. Findings At 12 months, HR-INT and LR-CONV increased remission compared with their respective comparators. The incremental cost per additional remission was {euro}7,081 (95% CI: dominated-47,277) for HR-INT and {euro}4,278 (1,312-11,793) for LR-CONV from a health insurance perspective. A willingness-to-pay of {euro}22,000 (HR-INT) and {euro}7,500 (LR-CONV) per additional remission corresponded to 90% probability of cost-effectiveness. Neither intervention was cost-effective in terms of QALYs gained within the 12-months period. Lifetime modelling suggested that both HR-INT and LR-CONV are not only cost-effective, but also cost-saving, relative to HR-CONV and LR-CTRL, respectively. Also in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, most simulations indicated dominance (71.7% for HR and 88% for LR). Interpretation Based on short-term economic evaluation, the interventions assessed were cost-effective regarding additional participants with remission, not for incremental QALYs gained. Lifetime modelling suggests cost savings for both risk groups. Targeting populations with lifestyle interventions to achieve prediabetes remission seems to generate good value for money in the long term.

Aims: COVID-19 and influenza continue to impose a substantial burden on the Canadian healthcare system, particularly among adults aged greater than 65 years. This study compared the clinical and economic outcomes of a Stand-alone vaccination strategy with separate influenza and COVID-19 vaccines versus a Combination strategy incorporating mRNA-1083, an investigational vaccine targeting both infections. Methods: The study adopted the public healthcare payer perspective and adapted a previously published static model to predict COVID-19 and influenza infections across a one-year time horizon. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) for mRNA-1083 against COVID-19 compared with the stand-alone vaccine (SPIKEVAX) was based on the pivotal clinical trial of mRNA-1083s COVID-19 component (mRNA-1283). For influenza, no incremental VE was assumed versus the adjuvanted stand-alone vaccine (FLUAD). Infections were modeled independently. Clinical outcomes included symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. The economically justifiable price (EJP) was calculated at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. mRNA-1083 uptake was assumed to yield absolute increases in COVID-19 and influenza coverage by 10% and 3%, respectively. Results: Compared with the Stand-alone strategy, the Combination strategy was projected to reduce the number of COVID-19-related symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths (n=71,074; 5,008; 935, respectively), and corresponding influenza outcomes (n=3,985; 362; 69, respectively). The use of mRNA-1083 within the Combination strategy generated a cost-savings of $90,440,471 in vaccine administration fees and an EJP of $304 per dose. Results were sensitive to rVE, coverage, administration fees, mortality and incidence. Limitations: mRNA-1083s rVE is being evaluated in clinical trials and the impact of mRNA-1083 on vaccine coverage and administration fees is uncertain. Conclusions: mRNA-1083 may reduce the burden of COVID-19 and influenza in adults aged greater than 65 years in Canada, while offering good economic value because it has the potential to increase coverage and VE while reducing administration fees.

Objectives: To describe secondary mental healthcare utilisation and associated costs among patients diagnosed with dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Design: Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected electronic health record data. Setting: Secondary mental healthcare services within a large NHS mental health provider in South London, UK. Participants: Adults aged 18 years or older with a recorded diagnosis of dementia or MCI between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2020. Patients surviving less than one year after diagnosis were excluded. The final cohort comprised 16,081 individuals. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Service utilisation and NHS mental health service costs during the 12 months before and after diagnosis, including inpatient, outpatient and memory clinic contacts. Results: The proportion of patients with at least one recorded mental health service contact declined from 91% in the 12 months before diagnosis to 69% after diagnosis. Among service users, mean NHS mental health costs increased from GBP 1,497 to GBP 2,177 per person following diagnosis (mean increase GBP 680; p<0.001), driven primarily by inpatient care. Dementia diagnosis, younger age, male gender, living alone, greater cognitive impairment and higher clinical symptom burden were independently associated with higher costs. Ethnic differences in service use and costs were also observed. Conclusions: Although overall service engagement declined following diagnosis, costs increased among those continuing to access care, indicating greater intensity of service use. Understanding patterns of secondary mental healthcare utilisation and associated costs may help inform planning and resource allocation within dementia services.

Background The study aimed to estimate healthcare costs associated with malnutrition in Swedish older adults. Methods We conducted a cohort study using data from the population-based Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K, N = 2982), a geriatric inpatient cohort of complex patients (N = 7680), and a cohort of individuals with cognitive impairment from the Swedish Register of Cognitive/Dementia Disorders (SveDem, N = 64192). At risk of malnutrition and malnutrition were ascertained by the Mini-Nutritional Assessment in SNAC-K and the geriatric inpatient cohort. In SveDem, body mass index was used for identifying malnutrition. Healthcare resource use was derived from regional and national registers. Associations between malnutrition and healthcare costs in 2024 Swedish kronor (SEK) were analyzed using two-part models and generalized linear regression models, adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Findings In the community, at risk of malnutrition and malnutrition were associated with an increase in annual healthcare costs of 2267 SEK (95% CI: 64,4469) and 1846 SEK (95% CI: -6802,10493), respectively. In geriatric patients, healthcare costs over 6 months in individuals at risk of malnutrition and individuals with malnutrition were 60205 SEK (45613,74798) and 86619 SEK (68362,104875) higher than those without malnutrition. In people with cognitive impairment, malnutrition was associated with higher annual healthcare costs (22170 SEK, 95% CI: 15152,29188). Interpretation Both at risk of malnutrition and malnutrition are associated with higher healthcare costs in Swedish older adults. The study findings are important for informing future economic evaluations of malnutrition interventions in Swedish older adults.

Background Early onset obesity in children, almost always accompanied by significant health complications, may be driven by rare genetic variants that influence appetite, metabolism, and nutrient absorption. Traditional treatment approaches are usually insufficient for those with monogenic obesity of this type. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, such as semaglutide, and related drugs such as melanocortin 4 receptor agonists, have emerged as promising first-line treatments for severe obesity. There is no established protocol or pathway in England for identifying children with monogenic obesity who could benefit from these and similar treatments Methods We undertook early economic modelling to examine the cost-effectiveness, from a health service perspective, of implementing a new pharmacotherapeutic care pathway for the identification and treatment of monogenic obesity in children. We modelled a hypothetical population of children with hyperphagia and body mass index (BMI) three standard deviations above mean values for age and sex. We evaluated the clinical decision to initiate the pathway using a decision tree model with patient quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and NHS healthcare costs 12 months from an initial clinic visit as outcomes, and calculated incremental cost effectiveness ratios and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Results Both costs and QALYs were higher under further investigation (GBP3,247 and 0.47 QALYs) compared to no further investigation (GBP1,589 and 0.24 QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in the base case was GBP7,133 per QALY. Further examination of these children was therefore likely to be cost effective in this model. Conclusion A decision-tree model suggested that further investigation of severely obese children potentially eligible for treatment with semaglutide is likely to be cost-effective for the NHS. However, this result is associated with uncertainty arising from a lack of evidence for many key model parameters.

OBJECTIVES To quantify socioeconomic inequalities in antibiotic prescribing for common infections in primary care, and assess whether these inequalities arise from differences in consultation frequency, prescribing behaviour, or variation in vaccination uptake, smoking, and body mass index. DESIGN Population based cohort study. SETTING Primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink, England. PARTICIPANTS 17,195,399 children and adults estimated to have been registered with a general practice in 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Antibiotic prescribing rates (prescriptions per person-year), consultation rates (consultations per person-year), and probability of receiving an antibiotic prescription following consultation. RESULTS Higher deprivation was associated with higher antibiotic prescribing rates for most respiratory tract indications. In children, prescribing rates were 44.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 41.9% to 47.7%) higher for upper respiratory tract infections and 47.6% (95% CI 44.2% to 51.3%) higher for lower respiratory tract infections in the most versus least deprived twentile. In adults, prescribing rates for lower respiratory tract infections were 22.7% (95% CI 21.4% to 24.1%) higher in the most deprived twentile. Prescribing rates for other indications showed weak, U-shaped, or negative associations with deprivation. Prescribing inequalities were primarily driven by inequalities in consultation rates rather than probability of receiving antibiotics once consulted. Lower influenza vaccination uptake partly accounted for higher consultation rates for respiratory infections among more deprived children, while smoking prevalence contributed to inequalities among adults. CONCLUSIONS Socioeconomic inequalities in antibiotic prescribing vary by indication type and are largely explained by consultation frequency. Reducing inequalities may require interventions that decrease the need to consult, e.g. improving influenza vaccination coverage in children and reducing smoking among adults, rather than focussing solely on prescribing behaviour.

Background Despite the significant impact of longstanding paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use in the United Kingdom (UK), pneumococcal disease burden remains substantial and is primarily driven by nonPCV13 serotypes. Higher valent vaccines such as the 20 valent PCV (PCV20) may provide additional public health and economic benefits, yet their value in the contemporary UK setting has not been fully assessed using recent data. Methods We updated an age structured dynamic transmission model using post COVID 19 UK epidemiology (2001 to 2023) to compare pediatric PCV20 with PCV13 and PCV15. Over a 10 year horizon, we assessed cost effectiveness and number needed to vaccinate (NNV), capturing invasive and non invasive disease cases, deaths, costs, quality adjusted life years, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. PCV20 was evaluated under 1+1 and 2+1 schedules; PCV13 and PCV15 were assessed under 1+1. Scenario analyses examined key uncertainties. Results PCV20 was estimated to avert more cases and deaths than PCV13 or PCV15, driven by broader serotype coverage and indirect effects. Both PCV20 schedules were dominant or cost saving versus lower valent comparators, with lower NNVs. PCV20s higher vaccination costs were offset by reductions in downstream healthcare expenditures. Conclusion Paediatric PCV20 implementation in the UK could deliver substantial health gains while improving economic efficiency, supporting timely adoption.

Background: U.S. POINTER reported a modest structured-versus-self-guided difference in the annual rate of global cognitive change. However, the clinical and economic implications of this incremental standardized cognitive-slope benefit for delaying progression from cognitively normal status to mild cognitive impairment or dementia remain uncertain. Objectives: To translate the U.S. POINTER cognitive-slope benefit into clinically interpretable progression outcomes in ADNI, A4, and LEARN, and to summarize scenario-based economic implications in ADNI subgroups. Design: External-cohort translation analysis using two complementary analytic frameworks: an early-change landmark Cox model targeting Month 24 with a prespecified fallback window and a joint longitudinal-survival model. Setting: ADNI, A4, and LEARN. Participants: Cognitively normal participants. Landmark analytic samples included 399 ADNI participants with 61 events, 124 A4 participants with 37 events, and 394 LEARN participants with 45 events. Joint-model samples included 486 ADNI participants with 86 events, 1,064 A4 participants with 410 events, and 505 LEARN participants with 87 events. Intervention: No multidomain lifestyle intervention was administered in ADNI, A4, or LEARN. ADNI and LEARN were observational longitudinal cohorts, whereas A4 was a randomized solanezumab trial; the present analysis did not estimate solanezumab treatment effects. We evaluated a counterfactual +0.029 SD/year improvement in cohort-specific mPACC slope, corresponding to the structured-versus-self-guided cognitive-slope difference reported in U.S. POINTER. Measurements: The clinical outcome was sustained progression to mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Main translated measures were hazard ratios (HRs), 5-year risk differences (RDs), number needed to treat (NNT), and restricted mean survival time (RMST) differences. ADNI subgroup economic summaries used incremental 2-year delivery-cost scenarios and prespecified willingness-to-pay thresholds for prevented progression events and MCI-free years. Results: Landmark analyses yielded small translated effects. For the +0.029 SD/year slope shift, HRs were 0.972 (95% CI, 0.949-0.989) in ADNI, 0.998 (0.989-1.005) in A4, and 0.996 (0.990-1.003) in LEARN, with corresponding 5-year RDs of 0.31 percentage points (95% CI, 0.12-0.57), 0.06 (-0.13 to 0.27), and 0.08 (-0.05 to 0.20). Joint models produced larger effects, with HRs of 0.831 (95% CrI, 0.776-0.879), 0.917 (0.907-0.927), and 0.833 (0.746-0.907), and 5-year RDs of 1.26 percentage points (0.90-1.68), 3.04 (2.65-3.43), and 2.25 (1.24-3.45), respectively. Corresponding NNT values were 79.1, 32.9, and 44.5, and RMST gains were 0.297, 1.242, and 0.617 months. In exploratory ADNI subgroup analyses, the small joint-model APOE-{varepsilon}4+ & A{beta}+ subgroup (61 participants, 22 events) showed the largest translated clinical effect, with HR 0.775 (95% CrI, 0.597-0.919), RD 2.65 percentage points (0.93-4.82), NNT 37.7, and RMST gain 0.723 months. In an exploratory threshold exercise, assuming an incremental 2-year delivery cost of $400 per participant for a structured intervention relative to a self-guided/reference intervention and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per prevented progression event, the largest threshold-based net monetary benefit was observed in the APOE-{varepsilon}4+ & A{beta}+ joint-model subgroup (+$2,250/person). On an MCI-free-year basis under the same incremental-cost assumption, this subgroup also had the largest threshold-based net monetary benefit (+$5,622/person). These values should be interpreted as scenario-dependent thresholds rather than empirical cost-effectiveness estimates. Conclusions: A U.S. POINTER-referenced structured-versus-self-guided cognitive-slope increment translated into directionally consistent reductions in predicted progression risk across ADNI, A4, and LEARN. The absolute clinical delay was generally modest and varied with cohort risk structure, biomarker/genotype enrichment, and analytic framework. Exploratory economic-threshold results suggested more favorable margins in higher-risk ADNI subgroups under low incremental-cost and high willingness-to-pay assumptions, but these findings should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating translation estimates rather than empirical cost-effectiveness evidence.

Background: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are traumatic or adverse events in early life that can have lasting effects on behavioral, emotional, and psychological functioning. Prior research suggests ACEs relate to later psychiatric outcomes through threshold, cumulative, and individual-specific risk patterns. Few studies, however, have operationalized all three models to test ACE-specific associations with diagnosed psychiatric disorders in individuals who are adopted or with foster care histories. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional retrospective study using electronic health record data from foster care and adopted patients aged 0-21 years old seen at the University of Minnesota Adoption Medicine Clinic (UMN-AMC) between 2014-2024. Extracted measures included ACE history, demographics, and psychiatric diagnoses. We used latent class analysis and logistic regression to identify clusters of adversity and estimate associations with psychiatric diagnosis domains, adjusting for Sex and Age at Initial Visit. Results: ACEs showed a threshold pattern across psychiatric domains, with higher ACE counts associated with greater odds of psychiatric diagnoses. Individual risk modeling indicated that exposure to abuse or violence was associated with higher odds of psychiatric diagnoses. Across cumulative and individual risk approaches, Anxiety Disorders, Mood Disorders, and Behavioral or Emotional Disorders showed the greatest sensitivity to adversity. Conclusion: Current ACE models may not fully capture neurodevelopmental impacts reflected in diagnosed psychiatric disorders among adolescents, particularly in high-risk groups such as foster and adopted individuals. In a large clinic sample our findings support a nuanced association between ACEs and later psychiatric diagnoses and highlight the need for ACE-focused assessment, prevention, and treatment strategies tailored to foster care and adopted populations.

Cultural engagement is associated longitudinally with better mental health and reduced depression incidence, but evidence has largely relied on self-reported symptoms and diagnoses, leaving uncertainty about clinically recorded disorders, and residual confounding remains a concern. Here, we examined whether cultural engagement (including going to cinemas, museums, galleries, exhibitions, theatre, concerts, or opera) predicts hospital-treated mental disorders in 8,274 adults aged 50 years or older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Participant records were linked to ICD-10 diagnoses in Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality records with follow-up of up to 20 years. In fully adjusted Cox models accounting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and social factors and multiple testing, frequent cultural engagement was associated with lower risk of any mental disorders (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.82, FDR adjusted P value<0.001), dementia (0.71, 0.56-0.89, FDR adjusted P value=0.010), substance misuse (0.75, 0.59-0.95,FDR adjusted P value=0.040), and mood disorders (0.73, 0.56-0.95, FDR adjusted P value=0.044), but not neurotic disorders. Associations persisted after excluding early incident cases and adjusting for baseline depressive symptoms and cognition, and showed robustness to unmeasured confounders. To further probe causality, eye disease, ear disease, and traumatic brain injury, which share similar socio-demographic profiles to mental disorders, were prespecified as negative control outcomes. Cultural engagement was not associated with any negative control outcomes. These findings provide triangulated statistical data to suggest that cultural engagement is associated with reduced risk of several clinically recorded mental disorders and support further testing of cultural engagement as a population mental health strategy.

Background: GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) are an established treatment for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity. Their widespread use is set to increase through both indication expansion and patent expiry. As well as efficacy, it is crucial to understand the safety of this drug class to enable optimal use. Here we demonstrate how a genetic approach can augment signal-detection and post-market authorization surveillance. Methods: We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in GLP1R to recapitulate the effect of agonism with GLP1RAs on circulating glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), body mass index (BMI) and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) using Mendelian randomisation. We then tested if the adverse effect highlighted by medicines regulators of pancreatitis and the emerging effect of sarcopenia were causally related to GLP1R agonism, using this approach. Analyses were conducted in UK biobank and replicated in FinnGen and All of Us, results being combined using meta-analysis. Analyses were further stratified by a priori risk factors of age and alcohol consumption. Results: Genetically proxied GLP-1R agonism was associated with a reduction in glucose (exp({beta}) = 0.95 95% CI [0.94, 0.97]), HbA1c (exp({beta}) = 0.94 95% CI [0.92, 0.95]), and BMI (exp({beta})=0.98 95% CI [0.97, 0.99]); and a reduced risk of T2DM (OR = 0.82 95% CI [0.79 to 0.86]). Risk of acute and chronic pancreatitis was however increased (OR = 1.10 95% CI [1.01 to 1.20] and OR = 1.05 95% CI [0.95, 1.17], respectively), which varied as a function of age with risk most pronounced in those aged 50-59 years-old (OR = 1.79 95% CI [1.43, 2.24], OR = 1.57 95% CI [1.16, 2.12]) and in drinkers (OR = 1.32 95% CI [1.12, 1.54], OR = 1.36 95% CI [1.12, 1.65]). Risk of sarcopenia also increased (OR 1.34; 95% CI 1.05,1,71). Conclusions: Genetically proxied agonism with GLP-1RAs recapitulated the pharmacological effects of GLP1-1RAs on glycaemic traits, BMI and T2DM risk. This approach supports a causal effect of GLP-1RAs on the well reported adverse effects of pancreatitis and further indicates age and alcohol consumption as risk modifying effects. The less well reported but emerging effect of sarcopenia appears to also be casually related to agonism at GLP-1R. These analyses suggest a genetic approach could be used as an adjunct to signal detection studies to enhance safety regulation as well as personalisation of the use of these drugs.

Background: The choice of hand-drying method affects microbial contamination levels but its economic consequences have not been systematically quantified. Methods: By applying a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework, we translated the documented contamination differential between jet air dryers and paper towels into infection risk estimates, and embedded these into an established health economic model of healthcare-associated infections in NHS hospitals and an illustrative productivity analysis for the EU workforce. Results: The median estimated avoidable HCAI cost attributable to jet air dryer presence in UK NHS clinical areas was 58 million pounds per year, representing 2.1% of total HCAI expenditure for the affected hospital population, with a 50% certainty interval of 33-84 million pounds. Extended to the EU workforce, the same contamination differential implied a median of 1.7 billion euros in annual productivity gains, due to reduced absenteeism, for a shift to use of paper towels in public restrooms. Conclusions: These findings suggest that hand-drying method selection carries measurable economic implications that are not currently reflected in facility management practice. The evidence supports the prioritisation of paper towels in clinical and public settings as a cost-effective infection control measure

Background Escalating mental health service demands have created a need to better identify young people most likely to require continued support from mental health services at the transition between childhood and adulthood. Anxiety is the most common adolescent mental health condition, yet its clinical significance and prognosis are not well understood. We aimed to examine the risk of young adult-onset psychiatric disorders in individuals with an adolescent anxiety disorder, and identify stratifiers of risk of subsequent psychiatric disorders in this group. Methods Individuals from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) with linked health records and aged 18 or over as of the 31st December 2023 were included. Those diagnosed with any ICD-10 anxiety disorder when aged 10-17 years were defined as having an adolescent anxiety disorder (n=2107, controls n=47,582). Polygenic scores (PGS) for psychiatric and neurodevelopmental conditions were calculated using LDpred2. Anxiety, comorbidities, and parental psychiatric history were defined through linked ICD-10 diagnoses. Sex was defined through linked records. Individuals were defined as having a young adult-onset psychiatric disorder if they first received any new psychiatric diagnosis aged 18-24. Results Adolescent anxiety diagnosis was associated with increased risk of all adult-onset psychiatric disorders (HR= 2.33-8.65). Post-traumatic stress disorder PGS, parental history of severe mental illness, and female sex were associated with increased risk of transition to a young adult-onset psychiatric disorder in people with an adolescent anxiety disorder. Conclusions Adolescent anxiety greatly increases the risk of a psychiatric disorder during the transition to adult life. Clinicians should consider female sex and parental psychiatric history when prioritising young people with anxiety for adult mental health service support. Future research needs to further consider whether polygenic scores would aid risk stratification in clinical practice.

Familial longevity, quantified using the Longevity Relatives Count (LRC) score indicating the proportion of ancestral long-lived family members, associates with a pronounced 13 years delayed onset of cardiometabolic disease (CMD). Understanding the molecular basis of familial longevity therefore provides critical insights into mechanisms of cardiometabolic resilience. However, the combined metabolomics and proteomics profile associated with the delayed CMD onset observed in such long-lived family members is not understood yet. Hence, we integrated plasma metabolomics and proteomics in 495 participants from the Leiden Longevity Study to identify molecular signatures associated with (a contrast in) the LRC score. Metabolomics profiling captured 429 features, including amino acid derivatives, nucleosides, and lipid mediators, while proteomics quantified 374 proteins related to cardiovascular, metabolic, and inflammatory pathways. Three within-family analysis approaches were examined and overlapping findings were interpreted. We identified ten metabolites and nine proteins that are associated with increased familial longevity, exemplified by a high LRC score. High LRC scoring individuals exhibited lower levels of amino acid derivatives (prolylhydroxyproline, 5-hydroxy-tryptophan, asymmetric dimethylarginine), nucleosides (2-methylguanosine, 7-methylguanosine, pseudouridine), N-acetylneuraminic acid and quinolinic acid, indicating optimized extracellular matrix integrity, vascular function, and reduced neuroinflammatory activity. Lipid mediators, including elevated 6-keto-PGF1a and reduced 9-HOTrE/alpha-linolenic acid ratio, reflected preserved endothelial homeostasis and attenuated inflammatory signaling. At the proteome level, strong ancestral familial longevity is associated with immune regulators (RETN, NPPB, IGSF8), extracellular matrix components (EFEMP1, EPHB4), and adhesion/signaling molecules (LRP11, ICAM3, KIT, ADGRG2), highlighting coordinated regulation of inflammation, tissue remodeling, and regenerative capacity. Multi-omics pathway analyses indicated convergence on amino acid and nucleotide metabolism, lipid signaling, extracellular matrix remodeling, and receptor-mediated communication. Collectively, these multi-omics systemic signatures define a molecular framework of ancestral familial longevity characterized by reduced inflammation, preserved tissue integrity, and enhanced metabolic and regenerative processes. Our findings provide mechanistic insight into the biology of familial longevity and potentially cardiometabolic resilience.

A greater genetic susceptibility has been proposed as an explanation of the greater rates of cardiovascular and metabolic disease in South Asian relative to European populations. We first demonstrate that after accounting for technical artefacts the genetic effects for related traits are largely consistent between ancestral groups, which downplays the role of GxG or GxE interactions driving differential prevalence. If higher genetic susceptibility in South Asians is due to selective pressures acting through adiposity-related traits in the evolutionary past, signatures of selection should be evident at loci associated with cardiometabolic disease and other causally related traits (e.g. fat distribution). We tested for enrichment of several selection statistics (FST, XP-EHH and XP-nSL) at loci associated with a range of traits related to cardiometabolic disease, in comparison to a null distribution of linkage disequilibrium (LD) score and minor allele frequency (MAF) matched SNPs. Loci associated with a subset of these traits (Type 2 diabetes mellitus, trunk fat percentage, body fat percentage and trunk fat mass) exhibited enrichment for FST, consistent with a moderate adaptive explanation for their cross-population differentiation. In contrast, none of the studied traits were enriched for haplotype-based statistics, indicative that cross population genetic divergence is unlikely to have been driven by recent selective sweeps but has rather likely arisen from either ancient selection or recent polygenic selection acting on standing variation.

Background: Chronic low-grade inflammation drives cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), an age-related driver of systemic inflammation, is linked to several cardiometabolic disorders. However, whether CHIP modifies CKM progression and contributes to heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk within the CKM framework remains uninvestigated. Methods: This cohort study included 307,025 UK Biobank participants at CKM stages 0-3 free of baseline CVD. CHIP status was identified via whole-exome sequencing (WES). The association between CHIP and baseline CKM severity was examined, along with the independent and joint effects of CHIP and CKM stages on incident CVD risk. The joint effects of CHIP and polygenic risk scores (PRS) were further assessed, and the incremental predictive value of incorporating CHIP into the AHA PREVENT equations was evaluated. Results: CHIP carriers were more likely to present with advanced CKM stages [OR 1.14 (1.09-1.20), P < 0.001] and exhibited higher incident CVD risk during follow-up [HR 1.13 (1.08-1.18), P < 0.001]. Significant joint effects between CHIP and CKM stages were observed, with the highest risk among CHIP carriers at CKM stage 3 [HR 1.63 (1.50-1.78), P < 0.001]. Large or multiple CHIP mutations conferred greater hazards, with distinct gene-specific effects observed. Moreover, CHIP and high genetic risk also jointly amplified CVD susceptibility. Most importantly, incorporating CHIP into AHA PREVENT significantly improved risk discrimination. Conclusions: CHIP is a significant risk factor associated with more advanced CKM stages and amplifies incident CVD risk. Integrating CHIP into existing prevention strategies may refine CVD risk stratification.

Background Little is known about the provision of diagnoses to young people with mental health disorders. We investigated diagnosis provision by NHS mental health services, focusing on 17-year-olds in South London between 2009-2024, and compared with estimated disorder prevalence. Methods To examine diagnosis provision in the population, we extracted diagnosis data from records of the NHS mental healthcare provider serving South London, using the Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre Clinical Record Interactive Search application; we then compared these data with the corresponding population size, obtained from the Office for National Statistics. To assess diagnosis provision in those with mental health disorders, we compared diagnosis data with the number of young people estimated to have met criteria for a disorder, derived from epidemiological interview data collected in the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study and weighted according to characteristics of 17-year-old South Londoners. To assess diagnosis provision in those with mental health disorders within health services, we compared diagnosis data with the number estimated to have met criteria for a disorder and used any health service for their mental health, again derived from weighted E-Risk Study data. Findings Of 17-year-olds from South London in 2009-2024, 4.0% (n=8,958/223,404) had a diagnosis in mental health records during the previous year. This diagnosis provision covered <1 in 16 of those estimated to have had a mental health disorder, and <1 in 4 of those estimated to have also used health services. Diagnosis provision was lower in girls than boys and in young people with Black/Asian/Mixed/Other ethnicity than those with White ethnicity, in those estimated to have had a mental health disorder and used health services. Interpretation These findings demonstrate gaps and biases in mental health diagnosis provision for young people, including within health services, and reveal the imperative need to strengthen young people's mental healthcare.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with early-onset and increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), particularly myocardial infarction (MI), that is not fully explained by traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Hematopoietic aging, marked by clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) and leukocyte telomere length (LTL) attrition, has been linked to CAD risk in the general population. We investigated whether T1D is associated with increased prevalence and earlier onset of CHIP and accelerated LTL attrition, and whether these processes contribute to CAD risk. We analyzed 416,565 UK Biobank participants (1,342 T1D cases) with harmonized CHIP calls and qPCR-derived LTL measurements. T1D was defined using ICD-10 codes, diagnosis before age 40 years, and insulin initiation within one year. CHIP was defined as variant allele fraction >=2%, with higher thresholds evaluated in sensitivity analyses. Multivariable regression compared CHIP prevalence, age-specific CHIP probability, and LTL between T1D and controls. Associations of CHIP and LTL with prevalent and incident (median follow-up approximately 13.5 years) MI and CAD were evaluated within T1D. Mendelian randomization, conjFDR, and integrated single-cell genomic analyses assessed genetic relationships. CHIP prevalence was higher in T1D than in controls (4.40% vs 3.00%; absolute risk difference 1.39%, 95% CI 0.29 to 2.49; p=3.7x10-3), with higher adjusted odds (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.23; p=6.9x10-5). Age modeling indicated an approximately 7-year earlier shift in CHIP risk in T1D (3% prevalence at age 52.2 vs 59.0 years). Mean LTL did not differ significantly between T1D and controls (beta -0.040 SD; p=0.13); however, T1D disease duration was associated with shorter LTL independent of covariates (beta -0.0082 SD per year; p=0.002). Within T1D, shorter LTL was associated with higher risk of both prevalent and incident MI (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.91; p=0.003; HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.91; p=0.012). CHIP was not significantly associated with MI or CAD in this cohort. Genetic analyses supported a bidirectional relationship between T1D and LTL, but not CHIP, and identified 47 T1D-LTL loci enriched for hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell pathways. In conclusion, T1D is associated with accelerated hematopoietic aging, reflected by earlier and more prevalent CHIP and disease duration-dependent LTL attrition. LTL attrition, but not CHIP, was associated with MI risk, implicating telomere dynamics as a contributor to excess cardiovascular risk in T1D.

Multimorbidity, the co-occurrence of multiple long-term conditions, represents a major challenge for ageing populations, yet its genetic architecture and relationship to long COVID remain unclear, despite shared epidemiological risk factors. We analysed multimorbidity patterns in 86,756 White British UK Biobank participants aged [&ge;]65 years, identifying six clusters spanning neurodegenerative, cardiac, gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal, vascular, and cancer & eye disease domains. Genome-wide association studies and post-GWAS analyses revealed significant loci in five clusters, including APOE, LPA, and CDKN2B-AS1, with patterns of genetic correlation consistent with known disease relationships. Notably, a shared variant within the APOE-APOC1 locus showed opposite effect directions for the musculoskeletal and vascular clusters, consistent with their negative genetic correlation. Investigating the multimorbidity-long COVID relationship via genetic correlation and Mendelian randomisation revealed no evidence of significant shared genetic architecture or causal effects. These findings indicate that multimorbidity clusters represent biologically structured, partly heritable phenotypes, whereas genetic overlap with long COVID appears limited.